The National Bank of Ukraine published its June 2025 Business Outlook Survey, showing companies’ performance expectations broadly unchanged from the prior month. The composite Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) stood at 50.0 in June, down from 50.8 in May 2025, and well above the level reported for May 2024 (43.6). Stable consumer demand, adequate goods supply, a stable energy situation, international financial assistance and seasonal factors supported sentiment, while continued attacks on critical infrastructure, intensified fighting, high input and labour costs, a shortage of skilled workers and exchange rate and inflation expectations remained key constraints. Trading was the most optimistic sector (52.0), with industry and construction slightly positive (both 50.4), while services turned less optimistic (48.3) amid higher fuel costs and staffing shortages; firms in industry, trade and services expected fast growth in purchase prices and signalled strong intentions to raise selling prices, while construction expected weaker price growth. Across all sectors, companies reported intentions to reduce headcount, with the strongest planned cuts in construction. The survey covered 579 firms and was conducted from 4 June to 23 June 2025; the next release (July 2025 results) is scheduled for publication on the first business day of August 2025.
National Bank of Ukraine 2025-07-01
National Bank of Ukraine’s June survey shows business expectations steady at neutral 50.0 as services slip below 50
The National Bank of Ukraine's June 2025 Business Outlook Survey indicates stable company performance expectations, with the Business Activity Expectations Index at 50.0, slightly down from May's 50.8. Trading remains the most optimistic sector, while services show declining optimism due to higher fuel costs and staffing shortages. Firms across sectors plan to reduce headcount, with construction anticipating the largest cuts.