The European Central Bank published the March results of its Consumer Expectations Survey, showing unchanged perceived inflation over the past 12 months but higher inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons, while reporting five-year inflation expectations for the first time. The release also points to stable nominal income growth expectations, lower expected spending growth, unchanged (somewhat negative) growth expectations and a slightly lower expected unemployment rate. Median perceived inflation remained at 3.1%, while median inflation expectations rose to 2.9% for the next 12 months and 2.5% three years ahead, with five-year expectations unchanged at 2.1%. Nominal income growth expectations stayed at 1.0%, expected nominal spending growth eased to 3.4% and economic growth expectations remained at -1.2%; the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead fell to 10.4%. In housing, expected home price growth increased to 3.1% and mortgage rate expectations were unchanged at 4.4%, while the net share of households reporting tighter credit access over the past year increased even as the net share expecting tightening over the next year declined. Microdata underpinning the aggregate results are available via the survey’s web page, and the next release covering April results is scheduled for 28 May 2025.
European Central Bank 2025-04-29
European Central Bank publishes March Consumer Expectations Survey showing one-year inflation expectations up to 2.9% and five-year expectations steady at 2.1%
The European Central Bank's March Consumer Expectations Survey shows stable perceived inflation over the past year, with increased inflation expectations for the next one and three years, and unchanged five-year expectations. Nominal income growth expectations remained at 1.0%, while expected spending growth decreased to 3.4%. The survey also noted a slight decline in the expected unemployment rate to 10.4% and an increase in expected home price growth to 3.1%.