The Dutch Central Bank has published its semiannual Financial Stability Overview, identifying cyber and operational risks as one of the biggest current threats to financial stability because rapid advances in artificial intelligence can increase the scale, speed and complexity of attacks and geopolitical tensions raise the risk of cyber and hybrid incidents. Geopolitical tensions and geo-economic fragmentation remain the main overarching risk drivers, with the potential for prolonged higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict to add inflation and weaken growth. The report’s stress test finds Dutch banks can absorb losses from an escalation of the war in the Middle East through existing capital buffers. Average common equity tier 1 ratios fall by about 2 percentage points to 15.7% in the scenario but remain above requirements, although risks rise if the conflict persists through higher credit losses. DNB also highlights private credit and stablecoins as areas to monitor. Limited transparency and broader interconnectedness make private credit harder to assess, and first results from a DNB data request show the largest Dutch insurers’ private credit exposures rose by about one third over four years to more than EUR 16 billion in 2025, around 8% of invested assets. The global stablecoin market has doubled over two years to about USD 300 billion. Direct Dutch exposures are limited, but further growth could deepen links with the financial system, increase market volatility and alter banks’ funding structures.
De Nederlandsche Bank2026-05-26
Dutch Central Bank identifies cyber and operational risks from AI and geopolitics as major threats while banks remain resilient in war stress test
De Nederlandsche Bank’s semiannual Financial Stability Overview flags cyber and operational risks, driven by rapid advances in artificial intelligence and heightened geopolitical tensions, as a major threat to financial stability, with geo-economic fragmentation and prolonged higher energy prices remaining key risk drivers. Stress tests indicate Dutch banks can absorb losses from a Middle East conflict escalation within existing capital buffers, while the bank also highlights rising private credit exposures of large insurers and rapid global stablecoin market growth as emerging vulnerabilities.