The National Bank of Belgium’s Business Cycle Monitor estimates that Belgian GDP will grow by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, matching the third-quarter rate. The forecast is at the lower end of the bank’s nowcasting models, which project growth of 0.3% to 0.5%, and risks are skewed to the upside because household consumption could rebound more strongly than expected. Household consumption is projected to recover after weak third-quarter growth, supported by robust labor demand and continued purchasing power gains, although it is likely to remain below its long-term average. Business investment growth should moderate following a third-quarter surge, while housing investment is expected to decline further. Public investment should strengthen as defense procurement expands, but imported defense equipment and resilient domestic demand are expected to push the contribution from net exports slightly negative despite a modest export recovery.
National Bank of Belgium expects Belgian growth to hold at 0.3% in fourth quarter of 2025
The National Bank of Belgium expects Belgian GDP growth to remain at 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, with risks skewed to the upside. Recovering household consumption and stronger public investment should support activity, while moderating business investment, declining housing investment and defense-related imports constrain growth.