The Bank of Italy has published three Occasional Papers presenting staff research on Italian firms’ use of artificial intelligence, the pricing of European Union bonds, and the effects of the Decontribuzione Sud payroll tax relief. The papers find that AI adoption in Italy is rising but remains below the European Union average, that EU bonds still trade at a premium over comparably safe sovereign debt because their legal status keeps them out of key bond indices and narrows the investor base, and that the Southern Italy contribution cut improved sales, profitability and liquidity for small and medium-sized enterprises on average without producing measurable gains in employment, wages or investment. In the AI paper, the share of firms using AI rose to 32 per cent at the start of 2026, with intensive use at 5 per cent, and simulations suggest broad adoption could raise productivity growth by 0.2 to 1.1 percentage points a year over the next decade, although firm-level evidence for 2022 to 2026 does not yet show systematic short-term productivity effects. The EU bond paper estimates a spread of around 50 basis points over comparably safe sovereign issuers and attributes it to index exclusion that leaves benchmarked demand at roughly 20 per cent of that for sovereign bonds, with sensitivity to adverse shocks increasing during monetary tightening. The Decontribuzione Sud paper finds take-up at just above 60 per cent of eligible workers, with weaker participation linked mainly to compliance requirements and, for larger firms, State aid ceilings, while a border-discontinuity analysis points to lower labour costs and stronger revenues and profitability rather than higher hiring. The papers are part of the Occasional Papers series and reflect the authors’ views rather than Bank of Italy policy.
Bank of Italy2026-06-03
Bank of Italy releases three research papers on AI adoption EU bond pricing and Decontribuzione Sud
The Bank of Italy published three Occasional Papers on Italian firms’ use of artificial intelligence, the pricing of European Union bonds and the effects of the Decontribuzione Sud payroll tax relief. The research finds rising but below EU-average AI adoption with potential productivity gains, a persistent spread of around 50 basis points on EU bonds due to index exclusion and a narrower investor base, and evidence that Decontribuzione Sud mainly reduced labour costs and improved SME performance without measurable effects on employment, wages or investment.