The Bank of Canada released the third-quarter 2025 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, indicating that tariffs and Canada–United States trade tensions continue to influence households’ spending plans, perceptions of financial health and views on inflation. The CSCE indicator rose modestly from its most recent low, driven by slight improvements in perceived financial health and spending intentions, while labour market perceptions deteriorated and remained negative. Fielded online from July 31 to August 21, with follow-up interviews from August 22 to 28, the survey took place before the federal government announced it would remove some counter-tariffs. About two-thirds of respondents expected the Canadian economy to enter a recession within 12 months, and around half reported barriers to spending, most commonly high prices, economic uncertainty and elevated housing costs. Consumers continued to shift planned spending toward Canadian-made goods and vacations in Canada, though three-quarters said they were unwilling to pay more than an additional 10% for a made-in-Canada product. Labour market sentiment weakened as reported chances of leaving or finding a job fell, with a sharper drop in job-finding prospects among public sector workers; job-loss concerns eased slightly but remained above pre-trade-tension levels, particularly in trade-dependent sectors. On inflation, short-term expectations stayed above pre-pandemic averages and five-year expectations picked up again; many respondents linked tariffs to higher prices, including anticipated motor vehicle price increases, and a larger share than in the prior quarter identified tariffs as the most important factor affecting the Bank’s ability to control inflation.
Bank of Canada 2025-10-20
Bank of Canada publishes 2025Q3 consumer expectations survey showing tariffs still weighing on spending and lifting inflation expectations as overall indicator rises slightly
The Bank of Canada's Q3 2025 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations reveals ongoing impacts of tariffs and Canada–U.S. trade tensions on household spending, financial health perceptions, and inflation views. The survey shows modest improvements in financial health and spending intentions, but deteriorating labour market perceptions, with two-thirds anticipating a recession within 12 months. Inflation expectations remain elevated, with tariffs increasingly seen as a key factor affecting the Bank's inflation control efforts.