The Austrian National Bank published an interim forecast projecting gross domestic product growth of 0.5% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027 and 1.2% in 2028. It lowered the 2026 estimate by 0.1 percentage points from June because of weaker first-half data but raised the 2027 forecast by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting stronger global trade and improved orders and sentiment in Austrian industry. The summer drought is expected to reduce 2026 growth by 0.1 percentage points. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall from 7.5% in 2026 to 7.1% in 2028. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices inflation is projected to decline from 3% in 2026 to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028, broadly aligning with the euro area. The decline reflects the expected fading of energy price effects from the Middle East war, while a July 2026 value-added tax cut on selected foods has so far been passed through almost fully to consumers. Alternative scenarios highlight geopolitical uncertainty. Under the most adverse assumptions, 2027 growth would slow to 0.3% without a recession, while inflation would rise to 5.6%.
2026-09-11Austrian National Bank (OeNB)
Austrian National Bank raises 2027 growth forecast to 1.3%, projects inflation easing to 2.2% by 2028
The Austrian National Bank forecasts economic growth of 0.5% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027 and 1.2% in 2028, raising its 2027 projection as trade and industrial conditions improve. Inflation is expected to ease from 3% in 2026 to 2.2% by 2028. An adverse energy and food price scenario would lift 2027 inflation to 5.6% and reduce growth to 0.3%.