The European Central Bank has published a working paper finding that textual data from corporate earnings calls can improve short-term forecasts of the euro area job vacancy rate. The paper constructs a monthly labour-demand indicator from references to labour market pressures in calls by euro area-headquartered firms. The indicator is updated twice monthly, is unrevised and provides information ahead of official vacancy statistics. In a pseudo-real-time forecasting exercise, the indicator improved very-short-term accuracy by about 3%, with its contribution fading at longer horizons. Survey measures of labour as a factor limiting production generated the largest overall gains, while unemployment added little once qualitative indicators were included. Most of the predictive value came from manufacturing, and disaggregating earnings-call data by sector produced no meaningful improvement over the aggregate indicator.
European Central Bank2026-08-05
European Central Bank working paper finds earnings calls improve short-term euro area job vacancy forecasts
A European Central Bank working paper finds that textual data from earnings calls can modestly improve very-short-term forecasts of the euro area job vacancy rate. Survey measures of production constraints provided the largest gains, while unemployment added little and manufacturing supplied the most informative signals.