The Central Bank of Eswatini’s Research Department published updated inflation projections for 2025–2027, revising up its short-term outlook after average inflation in the quarter ended December 2024 was 3.63% versus its prior forecast of 3.52%. The annual average inflation forecast for 2025 was raised to 5.25% from 4.87% projected in November 2024, with quarterly forecasts increased to 4.39% in Q1, 5.65% in Q2, 5.53% in Q3 and 5.43% in Q4. The Bank linked the upward revision mainly to expected higher food inflation due to unfavourable weather conditions, including the El Niño drought, alongside exchange rate and oil price risks associated with planned US trade policies and domestic administered price adjustments, particularly electricity and water tariffs. For 2026, the annual forecast was revised to 4.80% from 4.70%, reflecting a lower oil price assumption and a marginally improved rand that are expected to dampen inflation pressures, partly offset by continuing upside risks from administered prices, while the 2027 forecast was set at 4.57%.
Central Bank of Eswatini 2025-01-01
Central Bank of Eswatini raises inflation projections with 2025 forecast lifted to 5.25% and 2026 to 4.80%
The Central Bank of Eswatini revised its inflation projections for 2025–2027, citing higher food inflation due to adverse weather and risks from exchange rates and oil prices. The 2025 annual inflation forecast increased to 5.25% from 4.87%, with quarterly forecasts also adjusted upwards. For 2026 and 2027, forecasts were set at 4.80% and 4.57%, respectively, reflecting lower oil price assumptions and a slightly improved rand.