The National Bank of Moldova published its quarterly financial stability assessment for the fourth quarter of 2024, concluding that the banking sector showed adequate resilience to risk and no major build-up of systemic vulnerabilities. The financial stress index stood at 0.44, below the 0.58 stress threshold, while the banking-sector vulnerability indicator was -0.60, below the zero signal level. Direct contagion risk remained low, supported by banks’ predominantly foreign exposures, and the relatively concentrated interbank network showed no signs of systemic strain. Exposures to non-bank financial institutions increased for the fourth consecutive quarter, rising 10.5% from the previous quarter to MDL 3,407.7 million, or 4.2% of total loans, with all such exposures classified as performing. Banks reported a slight easing of lending standards alongside a modest rise in loan demand, while new mortgage lending accelerated to MDL 3,155.2 million, up by more than 2.5 times year on year and 52.4% quarter on quarter, and new consumer lending reached MDL 3,624.7 million, up 41.7% year on year but down 8.4% quarter on quarter. Overdue corporate loans rose 0.4% quarter on quarter but fell to 2.2% of corporate lending, while overdue household loans declined 13.9% and represented 1.5% of household credit; 70.1% of new household loans had a debt service-to-income ratio below 40% and 94.4% were extended with a loan-to-collateral ratio below 80%. The report also notes a sharp rise in Chisinau residential offer prices, with the RPPI reaching 178.8% on increases of 12.2% quarter on quarter and 36.4% year on year, while sensitivity analysis pointed to adequate capital buffers and liquidity stress tests showed potential shortfalls only under the most severe and less likely scenarios.

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