The Central Bank of Russia’s quarterly banking sector review shows lending accelerated in the second quarter of 2026, while bank earnings exceeded expectations. It raised its full-year net profit forecast to RUB 3.9–4.4 trillion from RUB 3.4–3.9 trillion and increased its forecast for growth in client funds to 7–12% from 5–10%. Quarterly net profit was RUB 1.1 trillion, slightly below the first quarter’s RUB 1.2 trillion but above the original forecast of about RUB 0.9 trillion. Banks’ claims on businesses, including bonds, grew 3.7%, compared with 0.7% in the first quarter, led by ruble loans to industrial and construction companies. Mortgage growth edged up to 1.7% from 1.4%, with market-rate lending driving disbursements as subsidized mortgages’ share fell to about 60% from 68%. Consumer lending growth accelerated to 2.8% from 0.3%, partly reflecting cash loans and seasonal travel spending. The central bank maintained its 2026 growth forecasts of 7–11% for business claims, 6–10% for mortgages and 4–8% for consumer loans.
2026-09-02Central Bank of Russia
Central Bank of Russia reports faster second-quarter lending growth, raises 2026 bank profit forecast to RUB 3.9–4.4 trillion
The Central Bank of Russia reported faster lending growth and stronger-than-expected bank earnings in the second quarter of 2026. It raised its full-year net profit forecast to RUB 3.9–4.4 trillion and its client funds growth forecast to 7–12%, while leaving its business, mortgage and consumer credit forecasts unchanged.