Bank of Indonesia published its Retail Sales Survey indicating retail sales are expected to maintain growth in February 2025, with the Real Sales Index (RSI) projected at 213.2, up 0.8% month on month (mtm). On a year on year (yoy) basis, the RSI is forecast to contract by 0.5%. The expected February uptick is attributed to stronger sales of information and communication equipment, clothing and automotive fuel ahead of Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr, while the annual decline is linked to weaker food, beverages and tobacco sales. January 2025 RSI was recorded at 211.5, down 4.7% mtm after a 5.9% increase the prior month, reflecting demand normalization after the Christmas and New Year period; retailers reported 0.5% yoy growth in January, down from 1.8% in December 2024. Price expectations eased over the next three months, with the Price Expectations Index for April 2025 falling to 159.6 from 179.0, while the July 2025 index rose to 155.4 from 152.3 on expectations of stronger demand during the school holiday peak season.
Bank of Indonesia 2025-03-12
Bank of Indonesia Retail Sales Survey projects 0.8% monthly growth in February as annual sales fall 0.5%
Bank of Indonesia's Retail Sales Survey projects a 0.8% month-on-month increase in the Real Sales Index (RSI) to 213.2 for February 2025, despite a 0.5% year-on-year decline. The February rise is driven by stronger sales in information and communication equipment, clothing, and automotive fuel, while the annual drop is due to weaker food, beverages, and tobacco sales. Price expectations indicate easing in April 2025, with a rise in July 2025 due to anticipated demand during the school holiday season.