The European Central Bank published the March results of its Consumer Expectations Survey, pointing to a significant rise in households’ perceived and expected inflation and a more negative view of the economic outlook. Expectations for spending, house price growth and mortgage interest rates also moved higher. Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 3.5% (from 3.0% in February). Median inflation expectations increased to 4.0% for the next 12 months (from 2.5%) and to 3.0% three years ahead (from 2.5%), while five-year expectations edged up to 2.4% (from 2.3%); uncertainty around one-year inflation expectations increased. Nominal income growth expectations for the next 12 months were unchanged at 1.2%, but expected nominal spending growth rose to 4.1% (from 3.5%), the highest level since May 2023. Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -2.1% (from -0.9%), and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months increased to 11.3% (from 10.8%); respondents continued to see unemployment slightly above the perceived current rate of 10.6%. Microdata underpinning the aggregates are available via the Consumer Expectations Survey web page. The ECB scheduled the release of the April survey results for 1 June 2026.
European Central Bank 2026-04-28
European Central Bank publishes March consumer survey showing inflation expectations jumped and growth outlook weakened
The European Central Bank published March results of its Consumer Expectations Survey, showing a marked rise in perceived and expected inflation alongside a more negative economic outlook. One-year and three-year median inflation expectations increased to 4.0% and 3.0% respectively, while expected nominal spending growth rose to 4.1% and expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -2.1%, with the expected unemployment rate rising to 11.3%.