The Bank of Italy published a financial stability and supervision note analysing how Italian banks value real estate collateral on loans to non-financial corporations backed by property (commercial real estate, CRE), using granular AnaCredit data. It compares collateral valuations with market price dynamics and simulates the effects of hypothetical property price declines on loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and expected losses on banks’ CRE portfolios. The analysis finds that collateral values for CRE loans are often updated over time. While revaluations are not fully aligned with changes in average market prices, the gaps are limited and may partly reflect that aggregated market indices do not capture heterogeneity in property characteristics. Stress simulations indicate that system-wide risks to the Italian banking sector remain generally contained across scenarios, with expected losses rising only moderately even under very adverse assumptions combining a sharp property price fall exceeding historical experience with a significant increase in the probability of default of the borrowing firms.
Bank of Italy 2025-02-21
Bank of Italy analysis of real estate collateral valuations on corporate property-backed loans finds losses from severe price shocks generally contained
The Bank of Italy's note on financial stability examines how Italian banks value real estate collateral for loans using AnaCredit data. It finds that collateral revaluations are not fully aligned with market price changes, but discrepancies are limited. Stress tests suggest system-wide risks to the Italian banking sector remain contained, with only moderate increases in expected losses under severe scenarios.