The National Bank of Ukraine published its January 2025 Business Outlook Survey, showing businesses kept their expectations for current economic performance at last year’s level. The composite business activity expectations index (BAEI) stood at 41.0, unchanged from January 2024 and below the neutral level of 50, with respondents citing typical seasonal weakness in January. Expectations were held back by the difficult security situation, limited investment in production capital, energy and labour needs, rising production costs, inflation and depreciation, while sustained consumer demand and international financial aid were seen as supportive. By sector, the index was 42.0 for industry (down from 43.7 a year earlier), 40.0 for trade (up from 38.9), 41.1 for services (up from 40.4) and 37.2 for construction (up from 31.9), with respondents generally expecting further declines in output, orders and activity. Price-rise intentions changed only slightly in industry, construction and services, while the share of trading firms intending to raise selling prices fell noticeably, and firms across all sectors reported intentions to reduce headcount, most strongly in construction. The survey covered 519 companies interviewed between 6 January and 23 January 2025. The February 2025 survey results are due on the first business day of March 2025.
National Bank of Ukraine 2025-02-04
National Bank of Ukraine reports January 2025 business outlook remains subdued with the business activity expectations index at 41.0
The National Bank of Ukraine's January 2025 Business Outlook Survey shows unchanged business expectations, with the composite index at 41.0, below the neutral 50. Challenges include security issues, limited investment, and rising costs, while consumer demand and international aid provide support. Sector-specific indices show mixed changes, with notable declines in industry and construction, and firms across all sectors plan to reduce headcount.