The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate by 25 basis points to 16.75% on July 24, 2026, with a corridor of +/-1 percentage point, citing a nine-month decline in annual inflation and scope to recalibrate the degree of monetary tightness, while noting that recent monthly data may signal a weakening of the disinflationary impulse and require confirmation; this follows a move to 18.0% in October 2025, holds through April 2026, and cuts to 17.0% in June and 16.75% in July 2026. Annual inflation eased to 10.3% in June from 10.4% in May, monthly inflation was 0.8%, and household one-year inflation expectations rose to 13.4%, while professional participants kept their 2026 inflation forecast at 10.0% and lowered 2027 expectations to 7.8%. Economic activity was strengthening, with GDP up 4.1% in the first half of 2026 and investment growth accelerating to 9.6%, while moderate real income growth and slower consumer lending were helping keep consumer activity at a moderate level. The National Bank of Kazakhstan said current tight monetary conditions, earlier policy decisions, exchange-rate dynamics, higher minimum reserve requirements, mirroring operations and consumer-credit regulation were exerting a restraining effect on inflation. Externally, uncertainty remained high as renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed up energy prices, food prices were mixed, inflation was accelerating in Russia, and the June rate increase by the European Centr
National Bank of Kazakhstan2026-07-24
National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts base rate by 25 basis points to 16.75%
The National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 16.75% on 24 July 2026, with a corridor of plus or minus 1 percentage point, citing a nine-month decline in annual inflation and room to recalibrate monetary tightness, while warning that recent monthly data may indicate a weakening of the disinflationary impulse. Annual inflation eased to 10.3% in June, but the central bank said risks remain pro-inflationary and that further decisions will depend on confirmation of durable disinflation, fiscal discipline, tariff indexation and external fuel and commodity market developments, with no pre-set path for the base rate.