The European Central Bank published its September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey, showing a slight rise in consumers’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months and a weaker economic outlook compared with August. Longer-term inflation expectations were unchanged, while expectations for nominal income and spending growth increased. Consumers also reported and anticipated tighter access to credit. Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0%, while expectations three and five years ahead remained at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5%. Expected economic growth over the next 12 months declined to -1.5% from -1.2%, and the expected unemployment rate rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Expected nominal income growth increased to 1.1% from 1.0%, while expected nominal spending growth rose to 3.7% from 3.6%. Consumers expected their home prices to increase by 3.5%, up from 3.4%, while mortgage interest rate expectations remained at 4.9%. The net shares of households reporting tighter credit access over the previous 12 months and expecting tighter conditions over the next 12 months both increased.
European Central Bank survey shows higher inflation expectations and weaker growth outlook among consumers in September
The European Central Bank’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey showed inflation expectations for the next 12 months rising to 3.1% from 3.0%, with expectations three and five years ahead unchanged. Expected economic growth deteriorated to -1.5% from -1.2%, while the anticipated unemployment rate increased to 11.3% from 11.0%. Expectations for nominal income, spending and home price growth edged higher, alongside an increase in the net share of households expecting tighter credit conditions.