The South African Reserve Bank published business cycle data showing a 1.1% monthly increase in the composite leading indicator in August 2026, reversing declines in June and July. The coincident indicator increased in July, while the lagging indicator fell. Six of the 10 available components supported the leading indicator’s increase. The largest positive contributions came from faster growth in real M1 money supply, measured on a six-month smoothed basis, and an increase in approved residential building plans. Slower six-month smoothed growth in job advertisements and new passenger vehicle sales provided the largest negative contributions. Despite the monthly increase, the leading indicator’s annual growth eased to 1.9% in August from 2.3% in July. The composite coincident indicator rose 0.6% in July 2026, supported by increases in the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales and in the industrial production index. The composite lagging indicator declined 0.4% over the same month.
South African Reserve Bank reports 1.1% rise in leading business cycle indicator in August 2026
The South African Reserve Bank’s composite leading business cycle indicator rose 1.1% in August 2026, reversing two monthly declines. Faster growth in real M1 money supply and more approved residential building plans were the largest positive contributors, although annual growth in the indicator slowed to 1.9%. In July, the coincident indicator increased 0.6%, while the lagging indicator fell 0.4%.