The World Bank’s latest Western Balkans Regular Economic Report projects regional growth of 3.1% in 2026, up from an estimated 2.6% in 2025, and calls for more efficient trade regulation to help firms compete internationally and create better jobs. Consumption and investment are expected to support growth of 3.4% in both 2027 and 2028. Regulatory barriers impose costs beyond average import tariffs of about 6%. Non-tariff measures add another 10% to import costs, with these additional costs exceeding 20% in some agricultural and food sectors. Restrictions on services supplied across borders carry estimated costs of 29%. The report’s simulations suggest that removing half of the remaining import barriers could raise gross domestic product by up to 12.5% over the medium term. Higher import costs also make it harder for firms to export and remain in export markets. Only about a third of new export ventures survive their first year, and just 1% to 4% reach their fifth year. Trading firms employ the vast majority of the region’s manufacturing workers and generally pay more than comparable businesses serving domestic markets. Recommended reforms focus on streamlining and digitizing procedures, targeting inspections according to risk, and recognizing aligned standards and qualifications, while preserving safeguards that serve legitimate public objectives.
World Bank projects Western Balkans growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 and urges trade reforms
The World Bank forecasts Western Balkans growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in both 2027 and 2028, supported by consumption and investment. Its latest regional report estimates that halving remaining import barriers could increase gross domestic product by up to 12.5% over the medium term. It recommends simplifying and digitizing trade procedures, targeting inspections according to risk and recognizing aligned standards and qualifications to help firms compete internationally.