The World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts a 23% increase in commodity prices in 2026, followed by a 7% decline in 2027, as conflict disrupts supplies and adverse weather threatens harvests. Energy prices are projected to rise 32% in 2026 to a four-year high. Food commodity prices are expected to increase about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, a cumulative 18%, reflecting disrupted grain shipments, El Niño risks and higher fuel and fertilizer costs. Brent crude is forecast to average USD 91 per barrel in 2026, up from USD 69 in 2025, before easing to USD 79 in 2027. Oil production is expected to remain below consumption, requiring further inventory withdrawals and increasing exposure to renewed supply disruptions. The baseline assumes no major intensification of conflicts affecting commodity supplies. In an adverse scenario combining further energy supply disruptions, attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and a very strong El Niño, Brent could average USD 105 per barrel in 2027. Food commodity prices could exceed the baseline forecast by 12%, surpassing their 2022 level and threatening to push more people into extreme poverty. To help countries manage higher prices, the World Bank Group has made USD 50 billion to USD 60 billion available through existing instruments, including USD 25 billion in financing arranged in advance. These resources can support social safety nets, strengthen fiscal capacity and provide working capital and liquidity for firms and farms.

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