The European Central Bank (ECB) published the October 2026 results of its Survey of Monetary Analysts, showing expectations for a December deposit rate increase followed by unchanged rates through 2027, while inflation gradually declines. The survey, conducted from October 12 to 14 with 69 respondents, puts the median deposit facility rate at 2.50% for October and 2.75% from December through the end of 2027. Respondents assigned an average probability of 77.6% to a 25 basis point increase at the December meeting. The median rate forecast subsequently falls to 2.25% in the third quarter of 2028. Median annual inflation measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is expected to decline from 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2027, reaching 2% in the first quarter of 2028. Inflation excluding food and energy is forecast at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 and reaches 2% in early 2029. Median real gross domestic product growth expectations remain at 0.3% per quarter from the fourth quarter of 2026 through 2029. Risks remain uneven for 2027, with 56.5% of respondents seeing downside risks to growth and 60.9% seeing upside risks to inflation. Analysts also expect Eurosystem bond holdings to continue declining. Median holdings under the asset purchase programme fall from EUR 2,214 billion at the end of 2026 to EUR 1,921 billion at the end of 2027. Holdings under the pandemic emergency purchase programme decrease from EUR 1,319 billion to EUR 1,170 billion over the same period.
ECB survey shows analysts expect December deposit rate increase to 2.75%
The European Central Bank’s October 2026 Survey of Monetary Analysts places the median deposit facility rate at 2.75% in December, up from 2.50% for October, and holds it there through 2027. Median headline inflation is projected to fall from 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2% in early 2028. For 2027, 56.5% of respondents see downside risks to growth, while 60.9% see upside risks to inflation.