The Dutch central bank (DNB) has published research finding that artificial intelligence (AI) could raise productivity in the Netherlands, but gains depend on reliable access to technology, effective business adoption and room for successful firms to grow. Strong digital infrastructure and a highly educated workforce provide a favorable starting point, although smaller businesses lag behind larger firms in adopting AI. Employment effects remain uncertain, while investment could increase inflation before productivity improvements help contain price pressures. Businesses need to redesign work processes, train employees and use time savings to improve products or expand output. Smaller firms can obtain specialist capabilities through software and cloud services, but often lack the time and expertise to implement them. Industry associations and knowledge networks can provide practical support. Access to reliable, affordable models, data and computing capacity is essential, alongside the ability to switch providers. European cooperation on infrastructure could broaden access and supplier choice without requiring Europe to become fully self sufficient. Employers should involve workers early in decisions about AI applications and skills. Where a change of job becomes necessary, training, career advice and placement support should begin before workers lose their jobs. Policy should also prevent labor and capital from remaining unnecessarily tied to less productive activities. This requires reviewing measures that impede business entry, growth, contraction or exit, and weighing additional national AI requirements against a functioning European market. Better European capital markets could help successful firms finance expansion. For monetary policy, AI investment could push up costs if demand for materials, energy and labor outpaces supply. Over time, productivity gains could ease price pressures if output grows faster than demand. Central banks therefore need to distinguish stronger growth driven by additional demand from growth reflecting greater production capacity.
Dutch central bank finds AI productivity gains depend on business adoption and room for productive firms to grow
Research by the Dutch central bank finds that artificial intelligence will not automatically raise productivity: businesses need reliable technology, effective applications and opportunities for successful firms to expand. It recommends adapting work processes, supporting workers through changing roles and reviewing barriers to business growth. AI investment could increase costs when demand outstrips supply, while subsequent productivity gains could ease inflation.