In a new blog post, the European Central Bank (ECB) finds that the energy shock arising from the war in the Middle East has triggered a weaker wave of supermarket food price increases than the 2022 shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Data through September 2026 show an initial increase in repricing followed by stabilisation, with little evidence so far of a persistent change in how often retailers adjust food prices. The frequency of food price increases rose in March 2026 but did not continue to intensify and spread across categories as it did in 2022. The gap between the frequency of price increases and decreases is small, while the average size of price increases changed relatively little, similar to the 2022 episode. By contrast, the earlier shock produced a broad and persistent shift toward more frequent price adjustments. The analysis draws on the ECB’s Daily Price Dataset, which has tracked supermarket price setting since 2022. It combines daily online prices with an artificial intelligence classifier that maps products to consumption categories underlying the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Monthly repricing measures exclude temporary sales and can be updated throughout the month. Distinguishing the frequency, size and spread of price changes helps policymakers assess whether an energy shock is generating broad and persistent inflationary pressures.
ECB finds food repricing after 2026 energy shock weaker than in 2022
In a new blog post, the European Central Bank reports a more limited food repricing response to the 2026 energy shock arising from the Middle East war than to the 2022 shock. Supermarket data through September 2026 show that price increases became more frequent in March before stabilising, rather than continuing to intensify and spread across categories. The findings provide little evidence so far of a lasting shift in retailers’ repricing frequency.