National Bank of Ukraine survey shows weaker business expectations in October as index falls to 47.1

The National Bank of Ukraine published its October 2026 survey of 587 companies, showing weaker business expectations as the business activity expectations index (BAEI) fell to 47.1 from 48.2 in September. All four surveyed sectors remained below the neutral level of 50, with construction recording the sharpest deterioration. Intensified attacks on infrastructure, renewed power cuts and export restrictions caused by port blockades weighed on activity. Sustained consumer demand, a bumper harvest and new logistics routes provided support. Construction’s index dropped to 38.5 from 48.8 amid the continued suspension of state funding for road and infrastructure reconstruction, shortages of skilled labor and seasonal factors. After seven months of optimism, companies expected construction volumes and new orders to decline. The industrial index fell to 48.0 from 51.0, with respondents anticipating fewer new orders, including export orders, while still expecting production to increase at a slower pace. Trading and services companies recorded slight improvements to 46.8 and 47.4, respectively, but continued to anticipate weaker activity. Services companies shifted from expecting an increase in the volume of services provided to expecting a decline. Companies in every sector intended to reduce their workforces, unlike in September, with construction reporting the strongest intentions to cut staffing. Respondents in most sectors continued to expect rapid increases in purchase prices and planned to raise selling prices at a fast pace. Services companies were the exception, anticipating slower growth in both purchase and selling prices.