The Central Bank of Madagascar held its policy rate at 12.50% for three months from 4 November 2026 to maintain sufficiently restrictive monetary conditions and return inflation towards its medium-term target, following a 50-basis-point increase in August from 12.00%, the level maintained since November 2025. The central bank projects inflation at 9.3% in December 2026, reflecting expected rice and energy price developments, before it begins slowing in the second quarter of 2027 and gradually converges towards the 5.0% target. Inflation risks remain tilted upwards, particularly from geopolitical tensions and uncertain energy and food prices. Economic growth is estimated at 3.5% in 2026, supported by domestic demand, while bank credit continued to expand in the third quarter. Foreign-currency inflows from tourism, transfers and telecommunications contributed to an appreciation of the ariary. Globally, geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions and climate shocks kept oil and rice prices elevated and renewed inflationary pressures despite resilient economic activity. The central bank judged its stance compatible with a gradual return to price stability and economic recovery, and said it would monitor inflation, expectations, banking liquidity, foreign exchange and activity, adjusting policy if necessary.
Central Bank of Madagascar Holds Policy Rate at 12.50%
The Central Bank of Madagascar held its policy rate at 12.50% for three months from 4 November 2026 to maintain restrictive monetary conditions. It projects inflation at 9.3% in December 2026 before easing from the second quarter of 2027 towards its 5.0% target, with risks tilted upwards.