The Riksbank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2%, citing stronger economic activity and supply-driven cost increases expected to push inflation higher. The move follows holds at 1.75% from November 2025 through September 2026 and takes effect on 11 November 2026. Inflation measured by the consumer price index with a fixed interest rate (CPIF) was 1.5% in September, held down by temporary fiscal measures. The underlying measure excluding their direct effects and energy prices was 1.6%, slightly below forecast, although indicators showed cost pressures remained above normal. Preliminary data showed gross domestic product and employment rose in the third quarter, in line with forecasts, and economic conditions are expected to return to normal next year. The central bank expects both CPIF and underlying inflation to rise above its 2% target next year, reflecting stronger activity, supply-related cost increases and a weaker krona in 2026. Globally, supply disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East have kept inflationary pressures elevated, with energy prices and inflation abroad rising further. The Riksbank said further rate increases in the coming year are likely if the inflation and economic outlook holds, in line with its September policy-rate forecast.