The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker with agreements signed through the middle of October 2026, extending its horizon to September 2027. The headline measure indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.7% in the second half of 2026 and 2.8% in the first half of 2027, revised upward by about 0.1 percentage point on average since the September release. Growth declines to 2.4% in the third quarter of 2027, although employee coverage remains limited for that period. The headline tracker smooths one-off payments over 12 months. Excluding these payments, permanent negotiated wage growth averages 2.8% over the first three quarters of 2027, compared with 2.6% for 2026. Recently signed collective bargaining agreements continue to indicate a limited role for one-off payments. Employee coverage across the nine participating euro area countries falls from 46.2% for 2026 to 31.8% in the first half of 2027 and 23.3% in the third quarter. The tracker is subject to revision and is not a forecast, as it captures only information available from active collective bargaining agreements. The next release, scheduled for Dec. 18, 2026, will extend the horizon to the end of 2027.
ECB updates wage tracker, indicating 2.8% negotiated wage growth in first half of 2027
The European Central Bank’s updated wage tracker indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.7% in the second half of 2026, 2.8% in the first half of 2027 and 2.4% in the third quarter. Excluding one-off payments, growth averages 2.8% over the first three quarters of 2027, up from 2.6% in 2026. The tracker reflects active collective agreements rather than a forecast, with employee coverage limited to 23.3% for the third quarter of 2027.