The Czech National Bank (CNB) published its October financial market expectations survey, showing that most analysts anticipated a November interest rate increase despite unchanged inflation forecasts and slightly weaker growth projections. Thirteen of the 16 respondents expected key rates to rise by 25 basis points at the November meeting. Eleven expected the two week repo rate to stand at least at 4% over a one year horizon, compared with 3.75% at the survey cutoff. Average inflation forecasts remained at 2.6% over one year and 2.2% over three years. Analysts expected inflation to exceed 3% temporarily in early 2027 before returning close to the CNB’s 2% target. High energy prices, the fading decline in food prices and persistent services inflation underpinned the upside risks. These pressures, alongside continued rapid wage growth, also supported expectations of tighter monetary policy. GDP growth forecasts fell by 0.1 percentage point for both 2026 and 2027, to 1.9% and 2.3%, respectively. Household consumption and investment were expected to support growth, while elevated energy costs, higher market interest rates and weak foreign demand would restrain it. Analysts also lowered nominal wage growth forecasts to 6.4% for 2026 and 5.6% for 2027. The koruna was expected to remain broadly stable in the near term and appreciate modestly to CZK 24.15 per euro over one year.
Czech National Bank survey finds 13 of 16 analysts expect a 25 basis point rate rise in November
The Czech National Bank’s October survey found that 13 of 16 analysts expected a 25 basis point increase in key interest rates at the November meeting. Average inflation projections held at 2.6% over one year and 2.2% over three years, despite expectations of a temporary rise above 3% in early 2027. GDP growth forecasts were trimmed to 1.9% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027.