At a Nov. 4, 2026, meeting with businesses, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reviewed its October economic forecasts, monetary policy outlook and progress in easing foreign exchange restrictions. The forecasts envisage inflation of 12.5% and a 0.4% contraction in real gross domestic product in 2026, reflecting intensified Russian attacks on production and logistics infrastructure. Economic growth of 0.4% in 2027 depends on the technical assumption that logistics improve from the middle of that year. The October increase in the key policy rate to 16.5% responded to rising price pressures and worsening inflation expectations. The forecast envisages maintaining that rate through the second quarter of 2027, while allowing adjustments as inflation and economic activity evolve. Inflation is projected to slow to 7.3% in 2027 and return to the 5% target in 2028. Under the existing managed flexibility exchange rate regime, the hryvnia can appreciate or depreciate with market conditions. Foreign exchange interventions support price stability without targeting a particular exchange rate or corridor. Current business transactions have largely been liberalized, with some opportunities for exporters to hedge foreign exchange risks and incentives to attract new investment and loans. Measures allowing businesses to exceed certain transaction limits have supported USD 1,110 million in transactions, with USD 1,198 million in available limits still unused. Businesses can also share certain limits with affiliated companies. Further easing will proceed gradually, subject to macroeconomic prerequisites and priorities that include attracting new investment.
National Bank of Ukraine reviews 2026 forecasts for 12.5% inflation and 0.4% economic contraction
The National Bank of Ukraine reviewed its October forecasts at a meeting with businesses, projecting 12.5% inflation and a 0.4% economic contraction in 2026 amid intensified Russian attacks. Its policy outlook envisages holding the key rate at 16.5% through the second quarter of 2027, with inflation returning to the 5% target in 2028. Further easing of foreign exchange restrictions will depend on macroeconomic conditions, following measures that have largely liberalized current business transactions.