The Dutch central bank has published an analysis explaining why food prices in the Netherlands were lower than a year earlier in August, September and October 2026 despite energy prices rising since March. Earlier cost reductions along the food supply chain are still reaching consumers and restraining overall inflation, but higher energy costs could push food inflation up again as those reductions fade.
Generally good European harvests in 2025 and declines in global food commodity prices from earlier peaks have lowered costs. These changes reach supermarket shelves with a delay because contracts often fix prices for extended periods, with supermarkets and suppliers negotiating only a few times a year. Lower energy prices in 2025 also continued to dampen food inflation through July 2026. The extent of any price adjustment depends on whether producers and retailers pass cost changes on to consumers or absorb them through their profit margins.
Food prices rose 0.4% in October 2026 compared with September, illustrating that annual declines do not necessarily mean groceries are becoming cheaper each month. That increase could indicate a turning point, but it could also reflect temporary fluctuations, including earlier promotions. Further transmission of higher energy costs or increases in international food commodity prices could lift food inflation. The recent declines have not undone the price increases of previous years.