The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its October 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing unchanged inflation expectations but greater concern about unemployment and missed debt payments. Median inflation expectations held at 3.9% for one year ahead, 3.3% for three years and 3.0% for five years. Labor market expectations were mixed, while anticipated household income and spending growth remained broadly stable.
The average perceived probability that the U.S. unemployment rate would be higher in a year rose 1.4 percentage points to 45.3%, the highest since April 2020. Respondents without a college degree drove the increase. The average perceived probability of losing one’s job over the next 12 months increased 0.4 percentage point to 13.9%. By contrast, the average perceived probability of finding work after losing a current job improved by 0.4 percentage point to 46.5%, its highest since November 2025.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose 1.6 percentage points to 13.8%, its highest since December 2025. Median expected household income growth edged down 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%, while expected spending growth fell 0.2 percentage point to 5.3%. Perceptions of credit access and expectations for future credit availability were roughly unchanged.