The Federal Reserve Board has published a research note finding that Canadian and Mexican sectors facing higher U.S. tariffs recorded weaker exports to the United States following the March 2025 tariff increases. This common pattern contrasts with aggregate goods exports, which fell 10.5% for Canada but rose 15.6% for Mexico in the 12 months through April 2026 compared with calendar year 2024.
Relative to patterns before March 2025, a 10 percentage point difference in tariff exposure was associated with 4.9% weaker exports in Canada and 11.8% weaker exports in Mexico. The difference between the country estimates was not statistically significant. Canada's estimated response was concentrated in metals, while Mexico's extended more broadly across sectors. Comparing exports across destinations also showed that Mexico's more exposed sectors lost ground specifically in the U.S. market, rather than across all export destinations.
Mexico's machinery exports contributed 17.3 percentage points to aggregate export growth, more than the country's total increase. Computers and related equipment accounted for nearly all the machinery surge, linked to U.S. investment in artificial intelligence data centers. Excluding machinery, Mexican exports fell about 2%. The analysis measures relative changes in sectoral export values, not the overall effect of tariffs on trade or gross domestic product.