Sweden's Riksbank published minutes of its Nov. 3, 2026, monetary policy meeting, showing unanimous support for the decision to raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2%. Further increases remained likely under the September policy rate forecast, provided the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds. The discussion centered on the risk that persistent supply disruptions and a strengthening economy would push inflation above target.
The economic recovery was broadening, while higher energy and input costs and the krona's weakening during 2026 were expected to lift both headline and underlying inflation above 2% in 2027. Temporary fiscal measures continued to suppress reported inflation. In September, inflation measured by the consumer price index with a fixed interest rate (CPIF) was 3% excluding the direct effects of those measures. Excluding energy as well brought the rate to 1.6%. Members highlighted the risk that rising producer costs would spread more widely to consumer prices as demand strengthened.
Views differed on the appropriate pace of further increases. Deputy Governor Per Jansson did not rule out another rise at the December meeting, interpreting the September forecast as guidance on the overall extent of tightening rather than its precise timing. First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge favored gradual adjustments with an assessment at each step, warning that households' sensitivity to interest rates could test the recovery if increases proceeded too quickly. Weaker household demand could also limit companies' ability to raise prices and reduce the need for further tightening.