The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina revised its 2026 growth and inflation forecasts upward in its autumn medium-term macroeconomic projections. Expected real gross domestic product (GDP) growth increased from 1.9% to 2.3%, while projected annual inflation rose from 4.7% to 5.1%. Growth remains moderate despite the improved outlook, with inflation pressures expected to ease gradually over the following two years.
Domestic demand remains a key growth driver, with private spending projected to increase by 2.3% in 2026. Elevated prices continue to constrain purchasing power despite nominal wage increases, limiting stronger consumption growth. Real GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 3.2% in 2027 and 3.5% in 2028, broadly consistent with the previous projection round.
Inflation pressures have intensified significantly since September, following an unexpected slowdown in June and July. Annual inflation is projected to decline to 2.8% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028, but persistent core inflation and delayed transmission of earlier international price shocks remain risks. The broader outlook is also exposed to geopolitical uncertainty, international energy and food prices, and recovery in major trading partners. Domestic risks include uncertain investment activity and structural constraints in the labour market and productivity.