The Bank of Uganda maintained its Central Bank Rate (CBR) to allow previous policy measures more time to take effect, amid a higher inflation forecast and a weaker growth outlook. The rediscount rate stands at 16% and the bank rate at 17%.
Headline inflation rose to 5.8% in October 2026 from 4.6% in September, driven largely by energy and weather shocks. Core inflation increased to 4.4% from 3.7%. Over the next 12 months, core inflation is projected to average 6.0%–6.5%, up from the previous forecast of 5.5%–6.0% and above the medium-term target of 5%. Currency depreciation, higher global oil and food prices, and adverse weather could push inflation higher.
Economic growth is estimated at 5.3% in the quarter ended September 2026, down from 6.8% in June. The growth forecast for fiscal 2026/27 was lowered to 5.5%–6.0% from 6.0%–6.5%. Tight shilling liquidity could constrain private sector credit, while delays in oil production could postpone expected economic benefits. Favourable weather and stronger investment in the extractives sector could support growth.