The Dutch central bank has published an assessment of bank mortgage data estimating that gross monthly payments will rise by EUR 150 for the median household with a variable mortgage rate or a rate reset before the end of 2028. Most affected households appear able to absorb the increase, but the proportion spending more than 40% of net income on mortgage payments is projected to double.
Around 950,000 households have at least one mortgage component exposed to these rate changes, representing 19% of outstanding mortgage debt at banks. At current mortgage rates, almost all resets would increase borrowing costs. The impact varies considerably: a quarter of affected households face monthly increases below EUR 50, while another quarter face increases above EUR 300. Mortgage interest tax relief could reduce the increase in net payments, but its effects are excluded from the calculations. Most outstanding mortgage debt has rate resets after 2028, meaning higher rates could continue to feed through gradually beyond that date.
For the median affected household, gross mortgage payments would increase from 20% to 24% of net income, assuming income has risen in line with average wage growth since the mortgage was taken out. Among the 755,000 households covered by the analysis, the share spending more than 40% of net income on mortgage payments would rise from 4% to 8%, or from about 30,000 to 60,000 households. This threshold indicates possible vulnerability rather than an inability to pay, which also depends on assets and other spending. Higher wages and lower mortgage debt relative to income and property values support affordability, while households facing large payment increases alongside weaker finances or income losses remain more exposed.