The European Central Bank (ECB) has published an Economic Bulletin analysis estimating that only around half of the 6.9 million public services jobs created in the euro area between 2008 and 2025 can be attributed to public sector employers. Health and social work have driven most of the increase, reflecting structural demand linked to population ageing, with private and nonprofit providers accounting for a substantial share of employment growth.
Public services contributed more than one-third of total employment growth over the last three years despite representing less than one-quarter of workers. Health and social work added 4.8 million jobs between 2008 and 2025, nearly 70% of the increase in public services employment, while employment in public administration and defence remained broadly flat. Residential care and social work accounted for more than 2.6 million additional workers, with most of that growth concentrated in activities serving elderly and disabled people.
The estimates apply employer shares measured by the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey in 2022-26 to employment growth since 2008, assuming that the mix of public and private provision remained broadly unchanged and that new jobs followed the existing employer mix. The findings concern who employs these workers rather than the overall fiscal footprint of public services, since jobs with private providers may still be partly funded by the state.