The National Bank of Moldova’s fourth inflation report of 2026 revises the inflation outlook upward for most of the comparable forecast period, mainly because of larger expected increases in regulated prices and fuel costs. Annual inflation is projected to peak at the end of 2026 before declining during 2027. It is expected to return within the 5% target’s tolerance band of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points in the third quarter of 2027 and remain there through the forecast horizon ending in the third quarter of 2028.
Annual inflation accelerated to 8.60% in September from 6.34% in July, driven principally by the Middle East crisis’s effects on fuel and transport prices and an adjustment to the natural gas tariff. The revised outlook incorporates larger increases in gas and related utility tariffs, partly offset by temporary consumer support measures. By contrast, the core inflation forecast was lowered throughout the comparable period, reflecting weaker domestic demand and an expected stronger exchange rate. The food inflation forecast was also reduced through the third quarter of 2027, despite higher international food prices.
The report follows the bank’s unanimous decision on Nov. 5, 2026, to raise its base rate from 9% to 11% amid risks that inflation would persist above expectations. The tightening seeks to contain inflation pressures, limit secondary effects from supply shocks and anchor inflation expectations. Real monetary conditions are projected to restrain aggregate demand through the end of 2027.