The Bank of Italy has published eight Occasional Papers, including research on using uncertainty indicators and machine learning to identify financial vulnerabilities. Historical analysis links increases in a new composite uncertainty measure to weaker economic activity and bank lending and greater market stress, particularly under adverse conditions. For municipal distress, leading predictive configurations achieved F1 scores, which balance precision and recall, of 0.27-0.30 against 0.13 for the existing regulatory benchmark. Final accounts provided the strongest predictions, while daily treasury advances and provisional budgets offered earlier information for preliminary screening. Operational use would require validation and supervisory review.
Research on Italian businesses finds that average employment per firm rose from eight to 9.7 between 2014 and 2024, almost entirely because older, larger businesses gained weight as entry and exit rates fell, rather than through broadly stronger growth. Firms experiencing sustained employment expansion represented about 7% of the reference population and accounted for roughly one fifth of recorded employment in 2024. These businesses generally had higher productivity and investment and greater participation in private equity and mergers and acquisitions. Separate analysis of Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan finds that medium and large companies secured more than two thirds of procurement value awarded to corporations, while direct transfers were less concentrated by company size. Northern firms received the largest amounts through both channels, although geographical differences narrowed when measured relative to regional economic size.
Modelling of electric vehicle adoption in China estimates that gasoline consumption in 2025 was 0.46 million barrels per day below a counterfactual without adoption, equivalent to roughly 14% of observed consumption. Further adoption could produce savings of 1.2-1.45 million barrels per day by 2040 relative to keeping the electric vehicle share of new sales at its 2025 level. These results concern gasoline, not the timing of a peak in total oil demand. An evaluation of the Bank’s education and workplace experience program also finds increases of eight percentage points in students reporting clear plans after school and four percentage points in those intending further study, without establishing whether those intentions translated into subsequent behavior.