National Bank of Ukraine reports business activity expectations index rises to 46.9 in February 2025 survey

The National Bank of Ukraine published its February 2025 Business Outlook Survey, showing firms upgraded expectations for their near-term economic performance, although overall sentiment remained below the neutral level. The composite business activity expectations index rose to 46.9 from 41.0 in January 2025 (47.5 in February 2024), supported by rebounding domestic demand, stepped-up production and improved supply conditions, while continued missile attacks on critical infrastructure, higher winter energy and labour costs, labour shortages and inflation remained constraints. Industry recorded the strongest outlook, with its index at 50.2 (42.0 in January), with respondents expecting higher output and more new orders, including export orders. Trading improved to 49.2 (40.0), with firms more upbeat about turnovers and, in contrast to the prior two months, optimistic about inventories and purchases of goods for sale while continuing to plan trade margin cuts. Construction remained guarded at 44.7 (37.2) due to seasonality, a cold spell and labour shortages, despite improved expectations for inputs, contractor services, volumes and new orders. Services stayed weakest at 42.2 (41.1) amid qualified staff shortages and higher winter costs, though expectations for service volumes and orders improved. Across sectors, companies reported less firm intentions to raise selling prices as purchase-price growth slowed, and most sectors expected to reduce headcount more slowly. The survey covered 521 companies between 4 and 21 February 2025 and reflects respondents’ opinions rather than the NBU’s assessments. Results for the March 2025 survey are due on the first business day of April 2025.