The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) kept the key policy rate at 5.75 percent on 12 February, maintaining deposit and lending facility rates at 4.5 percent and 7.0 percent respectively, as year-on-year inflation eased to 2.7 percent in December—below the 3 percent midpoint of the 3 ± 1.5 percentage-point target band—and is projected to stay within that range through end-2026 even after the government’s retail-margin cap expires. The rate has remained at 5.75 percent since September 2024 following a cumulative 75 bp cut earlier that year. The NBS reiterated its cautious stance amid persistent global uncertainty, citing volatile energy and commodity prices, heightened geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism that could weigh on domestic manufacturing exports. Serbian GDP grew 2.0 percent in 2025, and the Board expects faster expansion this year and next on the back of consumption and investment, aided by the “Leap into the Future – Serbia Expo 2027” investment programme. Wage gains and targeted lending support for lower-income households are not seen generating significant inflationary pressure, while weaker imported inflation, lower cost-push forces and a potentially better agricultural season should help anchor prices. The Federal Reserve is projected to continue trimming rates whereas the European Central Bank is expected to stay on hold; the NBS will decide policy “meeting-by-meeting”, prioritising price and financial stability, and will present up
National Bank of Serbia 2026-02-12
NBS holds key policy rate steady at 5.75%
The National Bank of Serbia held its key policy rate at 5.75 % (deposit 4.5 %, lending 7.0 %) on 12 February, citing December CPI of 2.7 %—below the 3 % midpoint of its 3 ± 1.5 pp target—and projecting inflation will stay within range through 2026 despite the expiry of the retail-margin cap. While flagging global uncertainties, the Board expects growth to accelerate on consumption, investment and the Serbia Expo 2027 programme and will set policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis, with updated forecasts due in the 19 February Inflation Report.