The Czech National Bank has published an analysis finding that the recent acceleration in consumer credit reflects not only standard macroeconomic factors but also developments in the mortgage market. Consumer and mortgage lending have grown in parallel since 2024, while the interest rate spread between the two has narrowed to a historical low. Although granular data do not show increased simultaneous borrowing by the same client at a single bank, some households may be using non-specific consumer loans for less costly housing-related needs. Consumer credit reached CZK 428 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026, representing 15.8% of bank lending to households. Quarterly genuinely new lending rose from an average of CZK 22.6 billion in 2020-2023 to CZK 49.8 billion in the second quarter of 2026, driven mainly by long-term non-specific loans. Adding housing loans to a model based on conventional determinants cut its average estimation error for January-May 2026 by 87%, from 3.7 percentage points to 0.5 percentage points. The analysis concludes that consumer credit and mortgages should be assessed jointly when forecasting lending and evaluating household indebtedness.
Czech National Bank2026-08-07
Czech National Bank finds consumer credit growth increasingly linked to mortgage market recovery
The Czech National Bank found that rapid consumer credit growth is increasingly linked to the mortgage market recovery as well as standard macroeconomic factors. Consumer credit reached CZK 428 billion in the second quarter of 2026, while quarterly genuinely new lending rose to CZK 49.8 billion. The bank considers joint analysis of consumer and mortgage lending appropriate for forecasting and assessing household indebtedness.