The Central Bank of Aruba published its latest external sector Economic Outlook, setting out balance of payments (BOP) projections for 2025–2026 and 2027–2029 and indicating that sustained BOP surpluses should keep international reserves at adequate levels. In the first quarter of 2025, the BOP recorded a surplus of AWG 319.1 million, with a current account surplus of AWG 534.5 million and a financial account net outflow of AWG 197.8 million. The current account surplus narrowed year on year due to higher imports, while the services surplus edged up on higher tourism inflows that were partly offset by increased outgoing service payments; the financial account outflow also declined sharply, mainly because direct investment shifted from a net outflow in 2024 to a net inflow in 2025 following a one-off hotel share purchase by residents from non-residents in 2024. The baseline forecast assumes these developments continue, with tourism inflows supporting current account and overall BOP surpluses while being largely offset by goods imports, and with financial account net outflows continuing in the medium term; reserves are projected to remain adequate, with current account coverage of 7.9–8.6 months (against a recommended minimum of 3 months) and official reserves staying above the upper bound of the IMF’s Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) metric of 150%. The central bank flagged that the baseline is exposed to domestic and international risks including slower tourism growth, geopolitical tensions (including the ongoing trade war and United States–Venezuela tensions), higher inflation, tighter labour market conditions, investment project delays and fiscal policy adjustments; projections are based on information available up to and including December 2025.
Central Bank of Aruba 2026-03-23
Central Bank of Aruba publishes external sector outlook projecting sustained BOP surpluses and reserves coverage of 7.9 to 8.6 months
The Central Bank of Aruba’s latest external sector Economic Outlook projects sustained balance of payments surpluses for 2025–2029, keeping international reserves at adequate levels. In Q1 2025, the surplus was AWG 319.1 million, driven by a current account surplus of AWG 534.5 million and a financial account net outflow of AWG 197.8 million. Reserves are projected to cover 7.9–8.6 months of current account payments and remain above the IMF’s Assessing Reserve Adequacy upper bound. The bank cited downside risks from weaker tourism, geopolitical tensions, higher inflation, labour market tightness, investment delays and fiscal policy changes.