In its Talking Trends bulletin, the Central Bank of Russia assessed that supply constraints kept seasonally adjusted price increases elevated in July and likely August, although most measures of underlying inflation remained within a 4% to 5% range. It said carefully calibrated monetary policy decisions are needed to return inflation to the 4% target in 2027. Second-quarter gross domestic product growth exceeded expectations, while a temporary reduction in production capacity is constraining output of goods and services in the third quarter. The gap between wage growth and productivity narrowed, supporting a smoother and more sustainable increase in demand, while uncertainty over external economic conditions remains high.
2026-09-01Central Bank of Russia
Central Bank of Russia flags elevated near-term price growth and need for calibrated policy to reach 4% inflation in 2027
The Central Bank of Russia reported elevated seasonally adjusted price growth in July and likely August due to supply constraints, while underlying inflation measures remained mostly within a 4% to 5% range. It sees a need for carefully calibrated monetary policy to return inflation to the 4% target in 2027. Third-quarter output is being constrained by a temporary reduction in production capacity.