The Central Bank of Russia published its Banking Sector quarterly review projecting moderate growth in corporate and mortgage lending in 2026, a return to expansion in consumer credit, slower growth in client funds, and broadly stable banking-sector profitability. Corporate lending to companies (including bonds) rose 5% in 2025 Q4 and 11.8% over 2025, with 2026 growth forecast at 7–12% as interest rates gradually ease. Outstanding mortgages increased 5% in 2025 Q4 and about 11% over the year, driven mainly by demand for subsidised loans ahead of tighter Family Mortgage programme terms from February 2026, with 2026 mortgage growth projected at 6–11% as subsidised lending volumes fall. The consumer loan portfolio declined 1.4% in 2025 Q4 and 4.6% over 2025, but is expected to grow 4–9% in 2026. Clients’ funds rose 11.9% over 2025, with 2026 growth expected to slow to 5–10% as investors may shift toward securities if returns exceed deposit rates. Banks earned RUB 3.5 trillion in 2025, and 2026 profit is projected at RUB 3.3–3.5 trillion, with allocations to corporate loan provisions remaining elevated.
Central Bank of Russia 2026-03-11
Central Bank of Russia projects 2026 corporate lending growth of 7–12% and bank profits of RUB 3.3–3.5 trillion
The Central Bank of Russia's quarterly review forecasts moderate growth in corporate and mortgage lending in 2026, with a return to expansion in consumer credit and slower growth in client funds. Corporate lending grew 11.8% in 2025, with 2026 growth projected at 7–12% as interest rates ease. Banking-sector profitability is expected to remain stable, with 2026 profits projected at RUB 3.3–3.5 trillion.