The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s August 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations found that household inflation expectations were broadly stable, while views on the labor market and household finances weakened. Median inflation expectations remained at 3.6% over one year and 3.0% over five years, and declined 0.1 percentage point to 3.2% over three years. Expected gas price growth rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%, while expected home price growth fell to 3.0%. Credit access and expectations for households’ financial situations also deteriorated. The mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher in one year increased 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, its highest level since April 2020, while the perceived probability of finding a job after losing one fell to 45.4%. However, the perceived probability of job loss declined to 13.8% and expected voluntary quits rose to 19.5%. Expected household spending growth increased to 5.2%, while the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose 1.2 percentage points to 13.2%.
2026-09-08Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey finds broadly stable inflation outlook, expectations for higher unemployment reach highest since April 2020
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that household inflation expectations were broadly stable in August 2026, although expected gas price growth increased. The probability assigned to higher unemployment reached 44.4%, its highest since April 2020, while credit access and household financial expectations deteriorated.