The Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 50 bp to 15.50 % on 13 February 2026, citing a continued return of the economy to a balanced growth path, signs that underlying inflation has stabilised near 4–5 % in annualised terms despite a January spike driven by tax and tariff changes, and confidence that disinflation will resume once these one-offs fade. This follows four earlier reductions that lowered the rate from 20.00 % in June 2025 to 16.00 % in December and now to 15.50 %. Monetary conditions have eased—credit and deposit rates have fallen even as money-market rates and OFZ yields in real terms remain broadly unchanged—so policy is still assessed as tight. Annual inflation was 6.3 % on 9 February, down from 5.6 % at end-2025, and is projected to slow to 4.5–5.5 % this year, with underlying inflation seen near 4 % in 2026 H2; 2025 GDP growth reached 1.0 %, at the top of the October forecast, while labour-market tightness is easing slowly though unemployment stays at historic lows. The central bank flags prevailing pro-inflation risks from elevated inflation expectations, administered price hikes and potential external-trade deterioration, alongside global uncertainties linked to weaker growth, trade disputes and low oil prices. It will decide on further easing at coming meetings, maintaining guidance for a still-tight average key rate of 13.5–14.5 % in 2026 to secure inflation’s return to the 4 % target in 2027 and beyond.
Central Bank of Russia 2026-02-13
Bank of Russia cuts key rate by 50 bp to 15.50 %
Bank of Russia cut the key rate by 50 bp to 15.50 % on 13 February 2026, its fifth reduction from 20.00 % in June 2025, citing stabilised underlying inflation near 4–5 % and viewing the January spike from tax and tariff changes as temporary. It still deems policy tight and, amid elevated inflation expectations and external risks, signals cautious further easing while maintaining guidance for a 13.5–14.5 % average rate in 2026 to secure a return to the 4 % inflation target by 2027.