The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas lowered its forecast for Texas employment growth in 2026 to 1.7%, with an 80% confidence band of 1.3% to 2.1%. The forecast implies the state will add 241,300 jobs this year, bringing employment to 14.6 million in December. Texas employment fell at an annualized rate of 0.1% in July, reducing year-to-date growth to 1.6%, below the state’s 2% long-run average. Losses were concentrated in construction, financial activities and manufacturing, while professional and business services led job gains. The statewide unemployment rate rose to 4.5%.
2026-08-21Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas lowers 2026 Texas employment growth forecast to 1.7%
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas lowered its 2026 Texas employment growth forecast to 1.7%, equivalent to 241,300 additional jobs. Employment declined at an annualized rate of 0.1% in July, while the statewide unemployment rate increased to 4.5%.