The Bank for International Settlements published a BIS Bulletin on Africa’s trade landscape amid shifting global trade policies, finding that the continent’s direct exposure to prospective new US tariffs is relatively limited, while indirect spillovers through weaker global demand and more turbulent financial conditions may be larger. It points to deeper regional integration and higher value-added trade, supported by investment in skills, infrastructure and financial integration, as key levers to strengthen resilience and medium-term growth. The analysis notes that a 2 April announcement suggests around 10 African countries could face tariff rates above 20%, although the scale, timing and legal status of the measures were unclear at the time of writing, and exemptions for selected goods such as energy products and critical minerals could materially lower effective tariff burdens. It also highlights Africa’s low overall share of global goods trade at about 3%, applied tariffs around 8% that remain above the rest-of-world average, and persistent non-tariff barriers including weak road transport infrastructure that makes geographic distance a much stronger constraint on intra-African exports than elsewhere. Against a backdrop of concentrated export structures and limited manufacturing capacity, the bulletin argues the African Continental Free Trade Area could boost intra-African trade by removing tariffs and other barriers, while demographic tailwinds, critical minerals linked to the energy transition and the growth of digital payments could support diversification if matched by stronger working-capital provision and broader financial integration; it notes that foreign direct investment inflows rose 86% in 2024 to USD 95 billion even as project finance deals fell 13%.

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