Federal Reserve Board note documents rising European Union energy import dependency and projects continued reliance through 2033

The Federal Reserve Board published a FEDS Note analysing the European Union’s energy import dependency over 1990–2023 and concluding that rising reliance on imported energy has been driven mainly by falling domestic energy production rather than higher energy use. A scenario exercise suggests import dependence is likely to remain material over the next decade even with faster renewable energy growth. Using Eurostat data, the note finds the EU’s energy import dependency ratio rose from 50 percent in 1990 to a peak of 62.5 percent in 2022, before declining to 58.3 percent in the latest data. Over the same period, gross available energy followed a hump shape and fell to 56.1 million TJ in 2023, while energy intensity declined steadily to 4.3 TJ per EUR million of GDP (around 40 percent lower than in 1995). Domestic production fell more sharply over the past decade, with renewable energy and biofuels more than tripling and exceeding 40 percent of production in 2023, but not offsetting declines in hydrocarbons and nuclear. For 2033, the scenario analysis holds gross available energy (56.1 million TJ) and non-renewable production (12.5 million TJ) constant at 2023 levels and varies renewable growth from a 2023 base of 10.6 million TJ. Under 2.7 percent annual renewable growth, projected import dependency is 52.9 percent; under 6.3 percent growth, it is 42.7 percent, with the note cautioning these are not forecasts and simplifying the dependency measure by excluding stock changes.